Russia growth revised lower for 2026
The International Monetary Fund on Monday lowered its forecast for Russia’s economic growth in 2026 to 0.8%, down from a previous estimate of 1%, according to its latest World Economic Outlook update.
The revised projection places Russia well below the average growth expected for emerging markets, estimated at 4.2%, and also below the forecast for advanced economies, which the IMF expects to grow by 1.8%.
Russia’s Central Bank has projected 2026 GDP growth in a range between 0.5% and 1.5%, while the country’s Economic Development Ministry has forecast growth of 1.3%.
Sharp slowdown after defense-driven expansion
The IMF maintained its estimate for Russia’s economic growth in 2025 at 0.6%, marking a significant slowdown from the 4.3% expansion recorded in 2024. That earlier growth was largely driven by a surge in defense-related spending.
Looking further ahead, the IMF expects Russia’s economy to grow by around 1% in 2027, suggesting a prolonged period of modest expansion.
Global outlook improves on AI investment
At the global level, the IMF raised its 2026 growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3%, citing stronger-than-expected momentum from artificial intelligence-related investments.
The fund upgraded its forecast for U.S. economic growth to 2.4%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from its October projection. By contrast, growth in the euro area is expected to reach only 1.3%, while Japan is projected to expand at an even slower pace.
The IMF said most of the upward revision to global growth was driven by stronger outlooks for the United States and China.
