Kirby says jet fuel surge will pressure near-term results
United Airlines chief executive Scott Kirby said a sharp rise in fuel prices following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran will weigh on the carrier’s financial performance this quarter, even as booking trends remain firm. Speaking Thursday after an event at Harvard’s John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Kirby called the impact “meaningful” and said the effect could extend into the next quarter if higher fuel costs persist.
Jet fuel, typically the largest airline expense after labor, has climbed steeply in a matter of days. The Argus U.S. Jet Fuel Index showed jet fuel up 58% since last Friday, reaching about $3.95 per gallon on Thursday. For airlines, rapid fuel moves can quickly alter margin expectations because tickets are often sold weeks or months before travel, while fuel is purchased much closer to departure.
Limited hedging leaves carriers exposed to price swings
Kirby said United, like most large U.S. carriers, does not hedge fuel, meaning it does not lock in prices using futures contracts or similar instruments. He argued the industry has largely stepped away from hedging, and noted that even when companies attempt it, managing refined-product exposure is complex.
He pointed specifically to the difficulty of hedging the crack spread, the gap between crude oil prices and refined products such as gasoline and jet fuel. That spread can widen or narrow independently of crude, complicating any strategy designed to stabilize the cost of jet fuel. Kirby also pointed to operational realities, noting that a Boeing 737-800 can hold 6,875 gallons of fuel based on manufacturer guidance, underscoring how fuel intensity makes airlines sensitive to price shifts.
Airfare response could arrive quickly as costs rise
Kirby said higher fuel costs could begin showing up in ticket pricing relatively soon. When asked how quickly fares may adjust, he said the changes will “probably start quick.” Airlines typically respond through a mix of pricing actions, capacity adjustments and network changes, though the timing depends on competitive dynamics and demand strength in specific markets.
Kirby said demand has remained resilient, describing booked revenue as up 20% from a year earlier. He added that demand “has not taken even a tiny step back,” a key signal for investors as airlines face higher operating costs and broader uncertainty tied to the conflict.
Middle East disruptions reshape routes and create new demand
Kirby’s comments come as airlines prepare for a closely watched JPMorgan industry conference in less than two weeks, where executives often update guidance. His remarks offered an early view into how airlines are assessing the war’s impact on both costs and traffic flows.
The conflict has triggered widespread travel disruption, with more than a million people stranded after more than 25,000 flight cancellations, pushing travelers to seek alternatives to routes that normally transit the region. Major hubs have been central to the disruption. Dubai International Airport is the world’s busiest airport for international passenger traffic based on Airports Council International rankings referenced in the text, while Hamad International Airport serving Doha is another key connector for travel between Australia, India, Europe and North America.
With passengers avoiding the Middle East because of airspace closures, United has seen an unusual surge in bookings on alternative routings. Kirby said that on each day this week United booked more than 1,000 people traveling from Australia and New Zealand to Europe, compared with fewer than one per day in the same period last year. He added that Europe is currently the strongest region for bookings.
Kirby also said United is in discussions with the Trump administration about possible charter flights to help move citizens out of the Middle East, though he said no plans have been finalized.
